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Sunday, November 22, 2020

The War of Covid-19

President Trump has repeatedly referred to U.S. attempts to battle the virus — as a “war” against an “invisible enemy.”

Trump labels himself ‘a wartime president’ combating coronavirus

The annualized rate of this virus is much higher than WWII for the USA

War and/or DiseaseYearsDeathsAnnualized
Flu 1918 Would be 2,146,491 todays population1918-19675,000337,500
World War II - Combat1941–45291,55783,302
War on Covid-19 - Deaths Through:Nov 20, 2020256,000341,333
American Civil War US Disease & Other1861–65250,000
War on Covid-19 - Deaths Through:Sep 22, 2020200,000
American Civil War Confederate Disease1861–65165,000
War on Covid-19 - Deaths Through:Jul 30, 2020150,000
World War I - All, disease, etc includes flu1917--18116,516
American Civil War US Combat1861–65111,000
War on Covid-19 - Deaths Through:May 27, 2020102,107
American Civil War Confederate Combat1861–6595,000
World War I - Disease mostly Spanish Flu1917--1863,114
Vietnam War - All - accidents, disease etc1955–7558,220
World War I - Combat1917–1853,402
Vietnam War - Combat1955–7547,424
War on Covid-19 - Deaths Through:Apr 18, 202037,175
Korean War1950–5333,686
American Revolutionary War1775–838,000
Iraq War2003–113,836
911Sep 11, 20012,977
War of 18121812–152,260
War in Afghanistan2001–present1,833
Mexican–American War1846–491,733
First Covid-19 Death in USFeb 29, 20201

The annualized figures are simply the total deaths divided by the years.  For the Covid-19 projection I took our current deaths that took place over 9 months, so 12 months would be the total. It is likely the death toll will be much higher because it appears that we have reached critical mass, with the rate of infections greatly increasing.  And our State by State City by City actions ensure that the nation's response will be ineffective.



Trump: "Coronavirus numbers are looking much better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down."

When Trump made these claims in May, coronavirus cases were either increasing or plateauing in the majority of American states. Over the summer, the country saw a second surge even greater than its first in the spring.

Trump: "The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away."

Trump made this claim ahead of his rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, when the country was still seeing at least 20,000 new daily cases and a second spike in infections was beginning.

Trump: “99%” of Covid-19 cases are "totally harmless."

The virus can still cause tremendous suffering if it doesn’t kill a patient, and the WHO has said that about 15 percent of Covid-19 cases can be severe, with 5 percent being critical. Fauci has rejected Trump’s claim, saying the evidence shows that the virus “can make you seriously ill” even if it doesn’t kill you.

Trump: "We now have the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World."

The U.S. had neither the lowest mortality rate nor the lowest case-fatality rate when Trump made this claim. As of July 13, the case-fatality rate—the ratio of deaths to confirmed Covid-19 cases—was 4.1 percent, which placed the U.S. solidly in the middle of global rankings. At the time, it had the world’s ninth-worst mortality rate, with 41.33 deaths per 100,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University

Trump: The U.S. has “among the lowest case-fatality rates of any major country anywhere in the world.”

When Trump said this, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India all had lower case-fatality rates than the U.S., which sat in the middle of performance rankings among all nations and among the 20 countries hardest hit by the virus.

Trump: America is “rounding the corner” and “rounding the final turn” of the pandemic.

Trump made these claims before and after the country registered 200,000 coronavirus deaths. As the winter approaches, coronavirus cases are increasing in a slew of states in the Midwest and the South, and data suggest that a third national surge might happen in the coming weeks. Fauci and CDC Director Robert Redfield have also warned Americans about the winter, with Fauci highlighting the "need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not going to be easy."
More Trump Covid-19 claims

In March: "You have to be calm. It’ll go away."

In April: "I’m feeling good. I just don’t want to be doing -- somehow sitting in the Oval Office behind that beautiful resolute desk, the great resolute desk, I think wearing a face mask as I greet presidents, prime ministers, dictators, kings, queens, I don’t know, somehow I don’t see it for myself. I just don’t. Maybe I’ll change my mind."

In May: "When we have a lot of cases, I don't look at that as a bad thing, I look at that as, in a certain respect, as being a good thing,...Because it means our testing is much better. I view it as a badge of honor, really, it's a badge of honor."

In June: "Coronavirus deaths are way down. Mortality rate is one of the lowest in the World. Our Economy is roaring back and will NOT be shut down. “Embers” or flare ups will be put out, as necessary!"


Covid-19 Update


As of Sunday afternoon, more than 12,261,200 people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 256,300 have died, according to a New York Times database.


One Million Cases in Seven Days: This Week in COVID-19 Data, Nov 19

Weekly cases grew 26 percent and nearly 80,000 people in the United States are hospitalized with COVID-19. That’s one-third higher than the nation’s previous record.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Latest Covid -19 Deaths in the USA


Source:  New York Times, US Census


Our Chances with Covid-19. I prepared the table below from the latest data from the New York times.  So far, Americans have had a 3.5% chance of getting the disease and if you get it, a 2.2% chance of dying.  Older people and those with health issues of course have a much higher chance of death.

United StatesNov 18, 2020Percent
Covid-19 Cases11,600,0003.5%

Best strategy is not to get it.  Keep vigilant until the vaccine is approved and you are inoculated. Avoid close contact, avoid crowds, wear your mask, wash your hands. Let's be careful out there.

Events in the lives of people in their early 70's

YearsEventTotal DiedAnnualized
(to date)Rate
1981-2020HIV Aids675,00017,308
2003-2011Iraq War3,836426
Sep 11, 20019112,9772,977
1955-1975Vietnam War58,2202,911
1950-1953Korean War33,6868,422
*guestimatefor 12 months200,000 firstseven months

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Two Existing Technologies Could Fight Covid Now

 Article from: The Wall Street Journal - November 17, 2020

Two Existing Technologies Could Fight Covid Now

Follow the link below to view the article.

Thanks to Skip Storey for sharing.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Opening Up America Again

Events in the life of people 70 years old. Covid-19 is a big deal.
YearsEventTotal DiedAnnualized
(to date)Rate
1981-2020HIV Aids675,00017,308
2003-2011Iraq War3,836426
Sep 11, 20019112,9772,977
1955-1975Vietnam War58,2202,911
1950-1953Korean War33,6868,422
*guestimatefor 12 months200,000 firstseven months

Covid Cases are going up substantially in the USA.  It is widely anticipated that as winter settles in people will be inside more and infections will increase.

Many Americans are frustrated with our governments for not having a better response and plan.  The White House has developed a plan called "Opening Up America Again."


The plan has a major shortcoming: 

  • "Strongly consider using face coverings while in public, and particularly when using mass transit."

It should order wearing masks in any crowded situation. We don't like to impose restrictions on our people, but seatbelts, speed limits, motorcycle helmets are examples of restrictions that we mostly follow.  

Speed limits are an obvious comparison.  Speed limits try to make things safer for everyone so that people are not killed by an idiot driving much faster than is safe.  We don't say "Strongly consider following the speed limit". 

Masks protect you and others since you or others may not know they have and are spreading Covid. 

Opening Up America Again LogoOpening Up America Again

President Trump has unveiled Guidelines for Opening Up America Again, a three-phased approach based on the advice of public health experts. These steps will help state and local officials when reopening their economies, getting people back to work, and continuing to protect American lives.

  New York Times Jan 6, 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases-deaths-tracker.html